"Fundamentals, Panics, and Bank Distress During the Depression"
©
American Economic Review,
December
2003
Volume: 93
|
Issue: 5
|
Pages: 1615-1647
Publication type: Journal article
Research Archive Topic: Business Economics and Public Policy, Corporate Finance
Abstract
We assemble bank-level and other data for Fed member banks to model determinants of bank failure. Fundamentals explain bank failure risk well. The first two Friedman-Schwartz crises are not associated with positive unexplained residual failure risk, or increased importance of bank illiquidity for forecasting failure. The third Friedman-Schwartz crisis is more ambiguous, but increased residual failure risk is small in the aggregate. The final crisis (early 1933) saw a large unexplained increase in bank failure risk. Local contagion and illiquidity may have played a role in pre-1933 bank failures, even though those effects were not large in their aggregate impact.
The American Economic Review © 2003
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