"Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation"

Robert Hodrick, Edward Prescott

© Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February 1997
Volume: 29 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 1-16

Publication type: Journal article

Research Archive Topic: Business Economics and Public Policy

Abstract

We propose a procedure for representing a time series as the sum of a smoothly varying trend component and a cyclical component. We document the nature of the comovements of the cyclical components of a variety of macroeconomic time series. We find that these comovements are very different than the corresponding comovements of the slowly varying trend components.

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