March 30, 2012
12:30 PM - 2:00 PM
12:30 PM - 2:00 PM
Acctg. seminar: Irem Tuna (London Business School). Macro to Micro: Country exposures, firm fundamentals and stock returns
We outline a systematic approach to incorporate macroeconomic information into
firm level forecasting from the perspective of an equity investor. Using a global
sample of 324,982 firm-years over the 1998-2010 time period, we find that combining
firm level exposures to countries (via geographic segment data) with forecasts of
country level performance, is able to generate superior out of sample forecasts for
firm fundamentals and that this forecasting benefit is not incorporated into sell side
analyst earnings forecasts in a timely manner. Finally, we provide some evidence that
country exposures are able to improve explanatory power of characteristic regressions
of equity returns and this return predictability does not appear to be explained by
standard risk factors.