M. Leanne Lachman is an executive in residence at Columbia Business School, where she advises MBA students and collaborates with the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate. Her book Global Demographics 2008: Shaping Real Estate's Future (Urban Land Institute) describes demographic characteristics and trends throughout the world and their implications for real estate for the next 20 years. She presented the study's findings at the 2008 ULI fall meeting in Miami, Fla. In this interview, which was conducted in November of 2008, Ms. Lachman discusses global real estate trends and where investors can look for promising opportunities. The following is an excerpt from the interview.


What were some of the most interesting findings and trends you identified in your research for Global Demographics 2008?
Right now it's a wonderful topic because we look ahead to 2030 and past the current financial crisis toward long-term trends. The main conclusion of the research is that there will be huge real estate demand in most parts of the world. The growth in emerging markets is really overwhelming and comes from several sources, but the strongest trend is urbanization. For every person that moves from a rural area to an urban area, you have new demand for housing. A lot of it starts out in slums; however, there is more and more demand for workforce housing that the private sector can provide. The growth in places like India, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa is really incredible.

The single biggest demographic change throughout the world in this century is the aging of the population. People are living far longer than they did in the last century. Fertility rates are dropping, so we will end up with a much higher proportion of the total population that is 65 or older. It is not clear how countries are going to accommodate the needs of that older population. The United States, Canada and Japan have long experience in providing various forms of housing for the elderly. Europe has some assisted-living and nursing-home facilities, but not in the numbers that are needed moving forward; so there is an opportunity for American developers and operators to export the skills we have acquired in senior housing. That is particularly important because we won't see a lot of demand growth in the U.S. until after 2026, when the baby boomers start to turn 80.